Biodiversity Loss Scenarios Challenge

Biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) play a foundational role for the resilience of our societies, economies and quality of life. Nearly one million species face extinction, and ecosystem services are declining. If societies continue current production and consumption patterns, IPBES scientists expect that 30 percent to 50 percent of all species may be lost by the middle of the 21st century. More than half of global GDP moderately or highly depends on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Measuring, tracking, reporting and forecasting expected BES developments is a prerequisite for action. Therefore, granular scenarios should model, both locally and regionally, the expected development of BES-impacting drivers and outcomes.

Together with our Swiss Re, Swiss Re Institute, WWF and as a service contributor to Swiss Re, EY, the following five research projects has been awarded :

Broadening the scope of future visions for nature positive futures, ETH Zurich, University of Lausanne, Grenoble University, Wyss Academy for Nature

The project will build upon a participatory approach already applied for the creation of normative, nature-positive scenarios for future landscape development in Switzerland and expand this to the country of Peru. The scenarios constructed for Peru will be operationalized through simulation modelling exploring their impacts on land use change, biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services within the agriculture and forestry domains. These impacts will be summarized qualitatively in terms of their effect on economic sectors of interest for policy makers and communities.

A nature-based solutions framework for managing natural catastrophe risks, IIS Brazil (International Institute for Sustainability)

This project will establish a robust decision-making framework for managing natural catastrophe risks using nature-based solutions. The framework strategically maps out alternative scenarios to assess the potential of restoration of degraded lands against baseline and pessimistic scenarios, aligned with the goal of containing global warming within 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels and other global agendas, thus combining both climate adaptation and mitigation. The framework is based on spatial intelligence to guide locally- and regionally-relevant policy and decision-making, offering a structured approach to enhance resilience and sustainability while addressing environmental challenges.

Climate Crossroads: Futures for People & Nature in Central Belize, University of Belize

Nature underpins society’s health and prosperity, and inspires and connects us to the world around us. Changing climate patterns will alter the state of nature and therefore affect our livelihoods, well-being, and quality of life. Understanding what impacts will occur and where can help in charting strategies for adapting to these changes. Through a participatory process, the University of Belize Environmental Research Institute (UB-ERI) will support local communities and stakeholders in Central Belize to identify how nature’s benefits may change with future climatic changes. This collaborative effort will empower them to start creating new visions and pathways that safeguard their livelihoods and way of life in the face of evolving environmental conditions. This project is in collaboration with the University of Southampton, CATIE, and supported by the Swiss Re Foundation.

Biodiversity and ecosystem service scenarios across global mountain, island and delta systems, University of Zurich

Current exacerbated changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services from local to global scales may become irreversible without further understanding of the development of the processes that lead to biodiversity and ecosystem service change. This is particularly problematic in regions of the globe already at risk, such as mountains, islands and deltas social-ecological systems, exemplify unique extreme environments where nature and humans have developed strong connections. This project examines the current status and the projected future of biodiversity and ecosystem services in all mountain, island and delta social-ecological systems at the global level, by combining a unique spatial data set of over 20 biodiversity and ecosystem service indicators with trajectories of change in the short term and biodiversity scenarios in the longer term.

Understanding risks and opportunities of alternative scenarios for a future friendly to biodiversity and people in Europe, VU Amsterdam

The project will develop a series of biodiversity-ecosystem services analyses to better understand the potential implications of climate and land use change in Europe. Specifically, using models of land use change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity, the project will quantify impacts of alternative development paths on biodiversity and people. Such will provide insight in the equality of access to benefits from biodiversity and distribution of risks. The project will focus on plant, butterfly, bird, and mammal species, generating distribution and risk maps while assessing variation of different socioeconomic pathways towards sustainability. Evaluating trade-offs emerging when considering different socioeconomic priorities, different organisms, and access to ecosystem services for people, this project will help envisioning improved biodiversity futures.