AXA UK, the AXA Research Fund and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Launch a New Observatory on Dengue Outbreaks

AXA UK and the AXA Research Fund have joined forces with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) on a project to develop a global observatory for vector-borne disease outbreaks . This includes an outbreak forecasting system that will give a direct and immediate measurement of climate and climate change’s impact on the risk of dengue outbreaks and a wide range of other diseases.

Vector-borne diseases – human illnesses caused by parasites, viruses and bacteria transmitted by living organisms such as mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas – account for more than 17% of infectious diseases and around 700,000 deaths every year. Climate change is worsening the transmission dynamics and geographic spread of these diseases. Dengue is the most prevalent and fastest growing vector-borne disease, with urbanisation and climate change driving its expansion to over 120 countries and putting around 2.25 billion people at risk.

The observatory will develop a new real-time database of dengue cases from more than 50 countries, collating information to help the development of flexible forecasting models. These will provide early warning of potential outbreaks by sharing forecasts with governments, scientists, and members of the public. The new forecasting systems will focus first on outbreaks in countries where dengue is most prevalent, then issue warnings to others including in Europe and North America, where dengue is currently expanding. At present, there is no global database that tracks the current dengue situation or current outbreaks.

The project will be coordinated by Dr Oliver Brady from LSHTM, who has over a decade of experience in modelling mosquito-transmitted diseases. AXA’s network of infectious disease and modelling experts will contribute, together with collaborators from the World Health Organisation.

November 2023