Transboundary Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Marine Socio-Ecological Systems

Oceans — the largest carbon sinks on the planet — are under increasing pressure from the climate crisis. Growing evidence suggests climate change will keep disrupting marine ecosystems and knock down fisheries’ revenues, affecting the communities that rely on them.

Tropical and subtropical areas are most likely to be affected, and these regions are already witnessing significant declines in marine fish stock. Climate pressures aren’t the only stressors — a plethora of studies suggest changes in governance and management systems could have more significant short-term impacts on fisheries than climate change.

In this context, developing science today to help better manage the oceans of the future is crucial. Yet, how fisheries are affected by climate is rarely quantified, and very little is known about the impact of governance structures on fisheries’ ability to be climate-ready.

During his AXA Unesco Fellowship on Coastal Livelihoods at Lancaster University, Dr Emmanuel Mbaru, an environmental social scientist and senior fisheries scientist at Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, is measuring the impact of climate change on fisheries.

Focussing on Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, where impacts are expected to be more severe, Mbaru has been drawing from the latest progress in climate modelling, notably using a tool called the climate-biodiversity-fisheries-economic impact model, to empirically quantify the impact of climate on fisheries.

Mbaru is also using emerging concepts in natural resource management to better understand how governance, adaptations, and mitigation measures feed into each other within fisheries systems. He, for instance, looks at interactive governance — the study of how different actors working together, influenced, constrained, or enabled by their structures, can solve problems or create opportunities within their society— and institutional bricolage — an approach that looks at how actors beyond the formal institutional structures, e.g. in modern and traditional, formal and informal institutions, can influence governance.

As part of this work, Mbaru dove deeply into structural elements of the regional fisheries bodies in the Western Indian Ocean. He found these bodies already had many elements in place to effectively govern fisheries to respond to climate change, but he identified considerable technical, political, and socioeconomic barriers limiting the pace and scope of their efforts. In addition, three important findings emerged from the reviews: 1) the WIO region is not very advanced in efforts to improve the governance of transboundary fisheries under climate change, however there are positive signals for the future; 2) considerable technical, political, and socioeconomic barriers undermine the pace and scope of timely responses to climate-related changes to transboundary stocks; 3) increased international cooperation is needed for the development and implementation of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies through the exchange of data, research, and best practices.

On key barriers and solutions to addressing global sustainability challenges among regional fisheries governance institutions in the face of climate change. The following key findings emerged: 1) the fragmented and decentralized governance systems in the WIO are ill-equipped to foster an international strategy for climate mitigation and adaptation; 2) differences in institutional characteristics, policy frameworks, and evolution of conservation and management measures do not hinder international cooperation across RFBs, but highlight the need for interactive governance as a basis for multi-stakeholder collaboration; 3) interactive governance can provide for greater learning and cross-influence among different units, levels, and forms of governance institutions in the face of new global challenges.

The study further combined multi-level network interactions and network activity to advance effective institutional integration in transboundary fisheries governance under climate change. Network interactions were captured through collaboration and communication ties across institutions. Network activity focused on interactions on climate mitigation and adaptation, policy and governance, climate change threats, and fishing rules across governance levels. There were more close-knit communities and fewer influential actors in collaboration networks than communication networks, where influence seems more widespread. Organizations at the same level of governance had a strong tendency to interact primarily among themselves. The engagement of national-level/government actors is more extensive across all networks, whereas international-level actors, including regional fisheries bodies, retain an important responsibility in transboundary climate governance. Mitigation and adaptation networks were more fragmented than other policy interactions, reinforcing the potential mismatch between governance systems and climate change responses. These findings provide initial evidence that jurisdictional boundaries can potentially create barriers to cross-level interaction. Importantly, there is a need for regional and international institutions to consider integrating weaker local-level interests in centrally dominated governance processes to achieve effective climate change policy responses at the regional level and beyond.

Mbaru uses this expertise to help advise the Miamba Yetu: Sustainable Reef Investments programme, a US$40 million investment vehicle funded by the Global Fund for Coral Reefs that supports businesses benefiting coral reefs in the Western Indian Ocean. He has is also sharing his knowledge with the FishSCORE Network, a forum for information exchange about climate-ready fisheries.

May 2025

Transboundary Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Marine Socio-Ecological Systems

Find out more about the AXA-UNESCO Fellowships on Coastal Resilience